Reflections on domestic demand in the financial crisis: India's Revelation
Man / Little Xie Chen Hao
Financial crisis, India's why an exception?
By the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis triggered by the financial crisis has spread to countries around the world. The crisis not only for the United States, Japan, Europe and other developed countries caused by a heavy blow to China, India and other developing countries also led to different extents. The depth of the global financial crisis, scope, actually, "once in a century." India as an emerging market economy in this crisis have not been spared. Over the past three years, India's economic growth is continuous over 9%. However, in the context of the global economic slowdown, India's central bank - Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will also be expected in 2008-2009 reduced economic growth to 7%.
But compared with other countries, the impact of financial crisis on India is limited. United Nations Asia-Pacific Economic and Social Council (UNESCAP) 2008 annual report shows that in Asian emerging economies, India suffered the financial crisis will be minimal. "Because fast-growing economies in East Asia, India's growth is largely by strong domestic demand driven rather than overseas markets. So the U.S. recession is unlikely to drag on India's rapid growth." Medium term, the country GDP growth at 8.5%
To 9.5%, respectively. Moreover, by improving the business environment, development hardware infrastructure and human capital, India is expected to obtain and maintain the 10% rate of growth.
November 16, 2008, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said that the current international financial crisis on India's influence is limited, India's economic development and social stability will not be a threat, India's economic fundamentals are good, the banking system is healthy economic development in India in 2008 will continue to maintain a better level of 7.5%. January 2009, the Indian trade minister Camol
Nath attended the Davos World Economic Forum, also said the global financial crisis had little effect on India. He said that although the world suffered a widespread recession, India's domestic demand will help sustain economic growth, which makes the impact of the global crisis on India will not be as serious as in other countries. "India's growth is based on domestic development. It is not all ... ... based on the export market, we can maintain our domestic demand driven growth."
At present, the Reserve Bank of India said the country's economy had "bottomed out" and started to grow again.
The reason is limited by the financial crisis, largely because the Indian government strictly controlled the financial sector, foreign exchange and foreign investment adopt strict controls. However, these statements in front of view, India had in the excellent performance of the global financial crisis, it is important because India is a domestic demand-driven economy, less dependent on external markets. So why the formation of India's economic development model of this? India is how to fully tap the domestic demand in the crisis it? Domestic demand in India play in future economic development? We try to discuss these issues.
India's development model: domestic demand-oriented
India's domestic demand-oriented model of development in Asia and the world are very prominent. Over the years, India has been dependent on domestic demand rather than rely on exports, growth is mainly dependent on domestic consumers. This and other Asian neighbors in sharp contrast. Most developing countries in Asia selected export-oriented development model depends on the export of cheap labor-intensive manufactured products, creating the so-called "East Asian miracle." In the nineties, after the financial crisis, Thailand, Malaysia and South Korea and many Asian countries are beginning to realize that export-oriented economies, vulnerability, instead actively to domestic demand-driven economic development. Asian Development Bank in 2005, "Asian Development Outlook" report, the analysis of export-oriented Asian countries and domestic demand-driven models of development differences and transition efforts.
Greater reliance on domestic demand in India to a large extent has been taken in its "import substitution" of the foreign trade policy. For political independence and economic independence considerations, from the Nehru era, India has been working to build a complete industrial system independent. This policy in the 20th century did not change 80 years from 1979, India's imports of non-oil commodity is always greater than the export, import and export of India has been in a deficit state. The decade after 1993, India began opening up to international markets, the trade deficit has begun to improve, the growth rate of both imports and exports doubled, and the import growth exceeded export growth. As can be seen from Table 1, in 1973 to 1993 of the first two decades, India's domestic demand is growing, in particular the part of private consumption has been highest in more than 60% of GDP, the proportion of exports has been lower part . Even in 2002, exports accounted for the proportion of GDP is still only 16.7%. In 2008, India's exports of about 200 billion U.S. dollars, the contribution to the GDP is about 20%.
Table 1
India accounts for the expenditure items of the ratio of real GDP in 1990 prices,%.
Year
Domestic demand
(1) =
(2) + (3) + (4)
Private consumption (2)
Government consumption (3)
Domestic fixed capital formation
(4)
Net exports
(5) =
(6) - (7)
Export
(6)
Import
(7)
1973
101.6
70.8
9.1
21.7
-1.6
6.7
8.4
1983
103.1
71.8
10.3
21.0
-3.1
6.5
9.6
1993
102.8
68.7
11.9
22.2
-2.8
8.6
11.5
2002
101.1
62.8
12.0
26.4
-1.1
16.7
17.9
(Source: Asian Development Bank, 2005, Asian Development Outlook
2005. P. 48. )
Data over the same period compared with China, India, domestic demand-oriented features of the more significant. Compared with other East Asian countries, China's opening up a relatively short time, but also economic power, so they are still domestic demand-driven. However, China's dependence on foreign trade increased rapidly, while domestic demand proportion decreased rapidly, especially in rapid decline in the share of private consumption (see Table 2).
Table 2
China's economy accounts for the expenditure items of the ratio of real GDP in 1990 prices,%.
Year
Domestic demand
(1) =
(2) + (3) + (4)
Private consumption (2)
Government consumption (3)
Domestic fixed capital formation
(4)
Net exports
(5) =
(6) - (7)
Export
(6)
Import
(7)
1973
99.1
55.7
9.4
34.1
0.9
5.0
4.1
1983
100.2
54.3
12.1
33.7
-0.2
13.2
13.4
1993
100.8
49.1
13.1
38.6
-0.8
18.6
19.3
2003
94.2
39.6
12.0
42.6
5.8
24.4
18.6
(Source: Same as Table 1.)
Comparison of China and India, reflected in Table 3 more clearly. 1973-1983,1983-1993 and 1993-2003 in the three decades, in India, the contribution of private consumption has been significantly higher than China. In the 1993-2003 decade, the net export contribution to China's GDP growth rate at 10%, while India was only 1.2%.
Table 3
Various expenditure compared to the contribution of GDP: China VS. India
(%)
Country
Time
Domestic demand
Private consumption
Net exports
China
1973-1983
101.4
52.9
-1.4
1983-1993
101.1
45.9
-1.1
1993-2003
89.6
32.9
10.4
India
1973-1983
106.1
73.9
-6.1
1983-1993
102.3
63.2
-2.3
1993-2002
98.8
54.7
1.2
(Source: Ibid, Table 1.6, p. 49.)
Domestic consumer market will further become India the main driving force of economic development. According to McKinsey Global Institute research, 2025, India will become the world's 5th largest consumer market, while consumer spending is expected to quadruple the total will reach about 1.5 trillion dollars. From "Foreign Affairs" magazine, and McKinsey Global Institute research that, in the past two decades, the size of the Indian middle class has quadrupled to nearly 250 million people, while Indians may well be in the future triple in two decades. According to the Indian Chamber of Commerce and Industry jointly estimated by the well-organized retail in India and strong domestic demand, attract prosperity, before the end of 2011, there will be 315 large shopping centers be located in primary and secondary cities in India.
India's policy on financial crisis response
Although domestic demand, led Fazhan strategy makes India Compared to many others, did not seriously hit by financial crisis and the impact of Tai, but the speed of India's economic growth is indeed slowing, the industry stars such sectors are Shoudao Lebijiaotai of impact. As the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said, "India's economy through the financial crisis sooner or later the 'pain'." In order to alleviate the financial crisis, India's economic and social adverse impact, the Indian government introduced active policies to vigorously tap domestic demand.
First, the increase in bank liquidity, strengthening banking and financial supervision. In response to the flow of shortage, the Indian Government mainly taken the following measures: capital injection to the banking system, to mobilize domestic funds in the market, Jiang Di benchmark lending rates reduce cash reserve ratio, reducing Fading liquidity ratio, Kaibitebie Rongzi window Deng. Meanwhile, the Indian government has also strengthened the supervision and control of capital flows to minimize the risk assets.
Followed by the broadening of the tax relief, increased fiscal spending. December 7, 2008, the Government of India launched the first set of programs to stimulate the economy, including: expansion of fiscal expenditure; reduce the central excise duties for most goods; an increase of nearly 40 billion rupees in the financial funds to help R & D and export market development; Fourth, to support the development of real estate and textile industries, accelerate infrastructure construction; to remove the oil used for power generation industry, import tariffs and export taxes on iron ore fine, massive iron ore export tariffs reduced to 5%
;
Allow the government to the extent permitted by the budget department to replace the bus. January 2, 2009, the Government of India launched a second economic stimulus package, including import tariffs and impose export tax rebate rate increase. February 24, 2009, the Government has introduced a third set of economic stimulus package, mainly by reducing the consumption tax, service tax relief to stimulate production and consumption of consumer durables.
Third, the adjustment of industrial structure, promoting the industry to accelerate development. To reduce the financial crisis on the real economy, the Indian Government to actively promote the development of the manufacturing sector, especially in support of real estate. 2008
In October the central bank through the National Housing Bank to provide Rs 40 billion fund to require the public bank as soon as possible 500 000 -200 10 000 housing loans of Rs incentives; 11
Cancellation of real estate loans on bank additional capital constraints; allow real estate credit companies to foreign borrowing. In addition, major initiatives include the development of iron and steel industry to help accelerate the car industry and electronics hardware manufacturing industry, textile, etc. to speed up upgrading of traditional industries and so on. And, as a major agricultural country, India during the financial crisis has particularly highlighted the support for agriculture. Government insists that the subsidies on agricultural inputs; implement the "Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme", as far as possible to relieve the debt of farmers, increasing investment in rural areas, focusing on the development of rural infrastructure, farm purchase prices, etc..
Fourth, accelerate the construction of infrastructure to support development of SMEs. One is to increase oil, electricity and nuclear power and other energy production; is to accelerate the construction of transportation, including: launching of the railway rehabilitation and highway construction projects to increase investment in infrastructure, support infrastructure financing, investment in infrastructure to support banks accelerate the privatization of infrastructure, attract foreign investment in infrastructure; third, speeding up urban construction, the Government launched the Jawaharlal Nehru national urban renewal program of urban regeneration objectives, the Central Government is also allocating funds to states to actively support the construction of local infrastructure. In order to solve the credit problems of SMEs in India to take the principal means includes: relaxing collateral requirements for loans, urged the public enterprises to accelerate payment of outstanding accounts receivable and the provision of SME credit support.
Domestic demand and promoting India in the global supply chain climb
Strong domestic demand to India in the current financial crisis less vulnerable to external market shocks. In the long run, a huge domestic market also continues to push India's deeply involved in the international division of labor in the global supply chain, rising status. Therefore, the foreseeable future in India is heavily dependent on domestic demand will gradually decrease.
Services in India's economic structure plays a decisive role. Many people think that, in the early 21st century world economy, the division of labor between the Asian giant will be clear. China is the world's factory floor, in the manufacture of all kinds of things. India is the world's back office: From the software fault repair, to track down credit card loans. India's services sector is a hot, but its manufacturing is not the case. From 1990 to 2005, industry's contribution to India's economic growth remain almost stagnant, hovering between 25% to 27%. In the same period, the proportion of service sector rose from 37% to 52%. By poor infrastructure, red tape and restrictive labor laws impeded the degree of Indian participation in the globalization of production has been low. According to the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) estimates of experts, India's manufacturing exports in 2005 accounted for only 6% of GDP, to 37 billion U.S. dollars. In contrast, China's manufacturing exports accounted for 35% GDP ratio is about 712 billion U.S. dollars.
Due to the huge domestic market, relatively low wage costs but workers with advanced skills, India is attracting more and more multinational companies to come to carry out manufacturing operations. Ford, Hyundai, Suzuki had a lot of production and exports from India car.
LG Electronics, Motorola and Nokia mobile phone production in India, or have plans to begin production, a large part of which are for export.
ABB, Schneider, Honeywell and Siemens have set up factories in India, production of electrical and electronic products for the Indian domestic market or export overseas. To this end, Wharton management professor Chaudhuri said global investment in the manufacturing sector in India is largely driven by domestic demand.
With the gradual abolition of import licenses, tariffs continue to decrease and the growing liberalization of the exchange rate system, have contributed to India's ongoing domestic consumption-led boom. According to the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) estimates that India's domestic car sales a year to 265,000 in 1995, rose sharply to 820,000 in 2005. In the 2007-2008 financial year, the first 8 months, India's domestic car sales of nearly 870,000. According to Ford, executive director of business development for Asia Pacific David Snyder estimated that India's auto market in the next 10 years will double, from about 1.4 million to 2.8 million. This is the Ford is expected to grow in China, a quarter of (vehicles), but higher than the same period in ASEAN is expected to increase in volume of 1.3 million. By contrast, Ford in North America, Europe and Japan expected sales to remain flat, Asia-Pacific region as a whole (of which focus on China, India and ASEAN), will be Ford's key growth markets.
"If domestic demand developed for the construction of the supply chain is very significant." Chaudhuri said, "It will be India's development model. Until the next India can significantly improve its infrastructure and attract more foreign direct investment. "India is also keen to increase the price elasticity of the incentive at the local manufacturing. The Government set up special economic zones to promote manufacturing growth, allowing private sector participation in ports and massive investments in roads and other measures, have been paid off.
So, while India because of heavy reliance on domestic demand and reducing losses in the current crisis, but the long term, India will be as strong domestic demand and strengthening participation in global production sharing. With globalization, more and more deeply involved in domestic demand and external demand is the future of India simultaneously to development.